2027 FYPD Draft Board
Lottery Odds
The six teams that miss the playoffs are drawn for picks 1–6. Last place enters 6 tickets down to 1 for the best non-playoff record, and the consolation bracket winner adds 2. The regular season is over, so the pool is settled: these six are the lottery, and every row below is the draw alone.
| Team | FIN | LOT% | TKT | CON% | TOP 3 | AVG | #1 PICK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ian5-15-2 · White Men Can’t Dump | 12.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 2% | 70% | 2.7 | 26% | |
 Nathan8-13-1 · Space Age Losers | 11.0 | 100% | 5.2 | 9% | 64% | 2.9 | 23% | |
 Nick8-12-2 · Kyle Rogers Roasters | 10.0 | 100% | 4.1 | 5% | 55% | 3.3 | 17% | |
 Jim S9-12-1 · Vladito's Way | 9.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 22% | 49% | 3.5 | 15% | |
 Bill10-11-1 · Yoshi's Island | 8.0 | 100% | 2.7 | 37% | 39% | 3.9 | 13% | |
 Alex11-10-1 · Luke Keaschall Bumps | 7.0 | 100% | 1.5 | 24% | 22% | 4.7 | 6% | |
 TJ11-9-2 · Honey Nut Chourios | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 8.3 | — | |
 John12-9-1 · Too Legit To QWitt | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | 8.6 | — | |
 Michael O12-9-1 · Roman Empire | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | 9.0 | — | |
 Collin11-8-3 · McLeanliness is Godliness⚡️ | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | 9.8 | — | |
 Trevor12-8-2 · The Lion Miners | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | 10.5 | — | |
 Hector14-7-1 · Yesavage Niños | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 10.7 | — |
FIN: mean projected regular-season finish · LOT%: odds of missing the playoffs
TKT: average lottery tickets, counting only the finishes that put this team in the pool
CON%: odds of winning the consolation bracket · AVG: mean draft slot across all runs
Projected First Round
Teams in order of their average draft slot, with each pick’s original owner and who holds it after trades. “Odds” is the chance that exact team lands that exact slot — a six-way lottery spreads its teams thinly, so those stay low even at the top. Read this as the shape of the draft, not a prediction.
| Pick | Original owner | Odds | Held by | How it is set |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian | 26% | Kept — swap voidPROTECTED | Lottery |
| 2 | Nathan | 21% | Kept | Lottery |
| 3 | Nick | 19% | Kept | Lottery |
| 4 | Jim S | 19% | Kept | Lottery |
| 5 | Bill | 22% | Kept — swap voidPROTECTED | Lottery |
| 6 | Alex | 47% | Kept | Lottery |
| 7 | TJ | 71% | Nathan | Playoff seed |
| 8 | John | 42% | Kept | Playoff seed |
| 9 | Michael O | — | Bill | Playoff seed |
| 10 | Collin | 23% | Bill | Playoff seed |
| 11 | Trevor | 24% | Nick | Runner-up |
| 12 | Hector | 21% | Kept | Champion |
Protected swap. Ian and Bill traded first-rounders, void if Ian’s pick lands in the top 2. That is 49% to happen, so the swap is close to a coin flip on its own terms. The board above shows it voided — in this projection Ian picks 1, so both first-rounders stay home. The ownership grid below always shows the trade as written in the sheet, because that is what the sheet records.
Every Pick, Every Team
The full distribution behind the board: how often each team ends up with each pick. Rows and columns each add to 100%.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian | 26 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 10 | 4 | ||||||
| Nathan | 23 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
| Nick | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 9 | ||||||
| Jim S | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 13 | ||||||
| Bill | 13 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 21 | ||||||
| Alex | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 47 | ||||||
| TJ | 71 | 14 | 15 | |||||||||
| John | 10 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 3 | |||||||
| Michael O | 20 | 45 | 18 | 17 | ||||||||
| Collin | 12 | 37 | 23 | 11 | 17 | |||||||
| Trevor | 27 | 23 | 24 | 26 | ||||||||
| Hector | 53 | 25 | 21 |
Values are percent. Blank cells are under 0.5%.
Pick Ownership
Source sheet →Every 2027 FYPD pick by round and original owner. A gold cell has been dealt; the name in it is who picks. Read live from the league’s tracker sheet, so a trade logged there shows up here on its own.
| Original owner | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael O | Bill | · | · | · | · | · | — |
| TJ | Nathan | · | · | · | · | · | — |
| Trevor | Nick | · | · | · | · | · | -1 |
| Hector | · | · | · | Ian | · | · | — |
| Collin | Bill | · | · | · | · | · | — |
| John | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |
| Bill | Ian* | Michael O | Collin | · | · | · | +1 |
| Nick | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 |
| Jim S | · | · | · | · | · | · | — |
| Alex | · | Bill | · | · | · | · | -1 |
| Nathan | · | · | TJ | · | · | · | — |
| Ian | Bill* | Hector | · | · | · | · | — |
Trade notes
- R1Ian → Bill — Protected Pick: if Ian gets a top 2 pick in the FYPD, then this trade is nullified
- R1Bill → Ian — Protected Pick: if Ian gets a top 2 pick in the FYPD, then this trade is nullified
How the Order Is Set
The rules
- Picks 1–6 go to the six teams that miss the playoffs, drawn by weighted lottery.
- Tickets run by finish: last place gets 6, 11th gets 5, down to 1 for the best non-playoff record. The consolation bracket winner gets 2 more.
- Picks 7–10 go to the four playoff teams that miss the final, worst regular-season record picking 7th and best picking 10th.
- The runner-up picks 11th and the champion picks 12th.
- A manager gets one pick per open prospect slot, so the rounds a manager actually uses depend on how many prospects they cut. This board shows pick ownership; it does not predict who will have a vacancy to fill.
How the odds are made
With the regular season finished, the six teams in the lottery are fixed. Each of the 5,000 runs plays out the consolation bracket — which is worth 2 extra tickets — then hands out tickets and runs the draw, so the only thing still moving is the draw itself.
Both brackets follow the league settings: six teams over three weeks, the top two seeds on byes, reseeding on. Ties use the league’s real tiebreakers, which are counted in categories, not matchups — the standings break on winning percentage and then on who took more scoring categories head-to-head, and a playoff tie goes the same way before falling back to the higher seed. On a bubble where two teams are level that is decisive, not a coin flip.
Simulated weeks need a category margin as well as a winner, so each one resamples a real margin from the 146 matchups already played rather than assuming a shape. Odds shift a little on every refresh because the draw is simulated, not solved.